Innovations in use or being actively developed

Be A Better Expert – Mobile Training Application

B.A.B.E. is a training app to help you Be A Better Expert when estimating and predicting - for instance project costs or the likelihood of a future outcome.

We humans are overconfident in our abilities to predict the future calibration is the process where experts get better at forecasting when they receive feedback on how accurate their predictions have been. Behavioural science research has found that we can all become better forecasters in our professional fields by receiving feedback on  general knowledge predictions. The mobile calibration training app makes use of time that would otherwise be lost such as travelling to hone prediction and judgement skills. The app is an evolution of the calibration training undertaken in workshops and on our worksheet Currently in development find out more Into-Risk-Calibration-Training-App-Briefing-v8.pdf (21 downloads)

Contact us if you would like to be involved in the trial.

CASM – Better Project Cost Forecasting

Project Cost forecasts do not, in general, fully take account to the interdependencies between the cost uncertainties, risk and opportunities. This is one of the reasons that projects and progrrammes, especially large and complex ones, can massively exceed forecasts. CASM Framework and supporting calculaion tool is a fast and simple way to account for complexity of this type. It has been used on a number of large programmes including the Hendy Review of  Network Rail's Investment Programme. More about CASM Framework here or download the paper.

Simple and Fast Risk Register

Not so much an innovation as our take on how risks and opportunity should be prioritised for management attention as an alternative to Qualitative / Matrix based Risk Management (see white paper 'Qualitative Risk Management - Time for a Rethink?'). Items are prioritised on a direct subjective 'Highest/High/Medium/Low' basis with a capture on the reasons for the prioritisation. Our experience is that this saves significant time especially in workshops, as there is no need to agree evaluation criteria in advance and a sense of what matters builds through group discussion. The register is made available for others to use from downloads.


Previous and unexploited ideas being kept alive as part of the 'knowledge brokering cycle'

Open Project Governance

Inspiration for this innovation came from Crossrail experience, where it was industry knowledge that the project was indistress. Open Project would be website where the public and insiders could predict the completion on projects based on observations (presence of tower cranes etc).

Melting Pot

Melting pot was a repository for projct lessons learned based on free text search and key word tags. Mothballed due to lack of interest, most organisations would not invest sufficiently in lessons learnt to make this viable.

Free Style Risk

A risk management database with alternate quantitative methodologies rather than Qualitative Risk Matrices. An early beta version was developed. Initial client was enthusiastic but later cooled, taken to the point of demonstration only.

Better Choices

Better choices is an integrated project risk and value model that measured how important uncertainty in preferences were to selecting the right project. No demand.

Report Back was an online Monte Carlo analysis engine, users could upload project cost data and would receive a cost forecast pdf by download or email. Reticence about the online aspect, however there was interest in the CASM calculation methodology.