CASM (Cause Association – Systems / Mechanisms) is a concise framework for thinking about and managing complexity in Risk Management and Forecasting. It is supported by a concise tool set that facilitates creation of more realistic forecasts. The tools are available free or charge for end users (or by arrangement for service providers) and can be downloaded here at www.casm-framework.com.
Most forecasts consider and quantify risks and other components in isolation:
Whilst in fact they can be connected by having root causes in common:
Of they can be connected on the ‘effect side’ so that if two or more risks occur there is a combined effect:
Not accounting for these phenomena in forecasts can lead to wildly inaccurate predictions, normally optimistic. The CASM framework and tools offer a time efficient way to undertake more realistic forecasts. Find out more by downloading our white paper.